Bias-Corrected ESM–Driven Rainfall Downscaling via Tweedie Compound Poisson–Gamma and LASSO for Local Climate Projection
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/mjfas.v22n4.4832Keywords:
Bias Correction; Earth System Model; Rainfall Downscaling; Standardized Precipitation Index; Tweedie Compound Poisson–Gamma; West Java.Abstract
Climate change has increased rainfall variability and intensified the need for reliable local rainfall projections, particularly in agricultural regions such as West Java. Earth System Models (ESMs) provide useful climate change information but remain limited by coarse spatial resolution and systematic bias when applied to local-scale rainfall analysis. This study proposes an ESM-driven rainfall downscaling framework by integrating Tweedie Compound Poisson–Gamma with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (TCPG-LASSO), climate imprint-based resolution enhancement, and ISIMIP bias correction. Three ESMs, namely BNU-ESM, MIROC-ESM, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, were evaluated using rainfall station data in West Java. Two modelling scenarios were compared: TCPG-LASSO without rescaling and bias correction and TCPG-LASSO with ESM rescaling and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) bias correction. Model performance was assessed using Taylor diagrams and time series plots. The results show that West Java rainfall follows a unimodal seasonal pattern and has a non-negative, positively skewed distribution, supporting the use of the TCPG framework. LASSO effectively selected a limited number of relevant ESM grids and reduced multicollinearity. The corrected TCPG-LASSO model provided better agreement with observed rainfall than the uncorrected model, with an average correlation of about 0.7. Among the evaluated ESMs, BNU-ESM showed the best performance and was used for six-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-6) projection during 2021–2030. Across the 805 valid station-month SPI-6 values from June 2021 to December 2030, normal conditions dominated, with 583 occurrences. Dry and wet anomalies were also projected, including 85 moderately dry, 15 severely dry, 2 extremely dry, 55 moderately wet, 47 very wet, and 18 extremely wet occurrences. These findings demonstrate that the proposed framework can support drought monitoring, agricultural planning, and hydrometeorological disaster mitigation in West Java.
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