The determinants of electricity consumption for ASEAN countries


  • Mohd Tahir Ismail School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang
  • Nadhilah Mahmud School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang
  • Rosmanjawati Abdul Rahman School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang



Electricity consumption, VEC model, Granger causality, forecast error variance decomposition


The present study investigates the causal relationship between ASEAN seven member countries electricity consumption (EC) and some determinants such as gross domestic product (GDP), exports (EXP) and carbon dioxide emission (CO2) using vector autoregressive (VAR) framework via vector error correction (VEC) model for the period from 1980-2015. The findings show that the effect of the chosen determinants is different among the seven countries. Within the sample period, by utilizing Granger causality test, out of the seven countries, only four revealed either unidirectional or bidirectional causality running from EC to the three determinants, GDP, EXP and CO2. Whereas, thru forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), forecasting beyond the sample period uncovered a shock to EC will also spread to GDP, EXP and CO2. The present study suggests that ASEAN should take note in designing their electricity policy, since electricity affect and be affected by other factors. In addition, ASEAN also should find solutions on how to control CO2 emission through EC.


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