Examine generalized lambda distribution fitting performance: An application to extreme share return in Malaysia

Authors

  • Muhammad Fadhil Marsani Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
  • Ani Shabri Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
  • Nur Amalina Mat Jan Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11113/mjfas.v13n3.599

Keywords:

Extreme share returns, kuala lumpur composite index (KLCI), l-moment, risk management, value at risk (VaR)

Abstract

Understand the extreme volatility in the market is important for the investor to make a correct prediction. This paper evaluated the performance of generalized lambda distribution (GLD) by comparing with the popular probability distribution namely generalized extreme value (GEV), Generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson (PE3) using Kuala Lumpur composite index stock return data. The parameter for each distribution estimated using the L-moment method. Based on k-sample Anderson darling goodness of fit test, GLD performs well in weekly maximum and minimum period. Evidence for preferring GLD as an alternative to extreme value theory distribution also described.

Author Biographies

Muhammad Fadhil Marsani, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia


Muhammad Fadhil Bin Marsani was born on December 22, 1991. He obtained a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Science Mathematics and Economics from the University Science Malaysia, and a Masters of Science degree in Statistics from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, in 2015. Presently, he is a Ph.D. student with Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, in the Department of Mathematical Sciences. His Research Interests is in Statistical Economics Modeling.

Ani Shabri, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

Dr. Ani Shabri is Lecturer in Statistics from Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science. His Research Interests is in Time series forecasting and Flood Frequency Analysis.

Qualifications:
PhD in Statistics (UKM)
M.Sc. in Statistics (UTM)
B.Sc. in Science Mathematics (UTM)

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Published

28-09-2017