Using weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model to forecast gold/oil ,DJIA/gold and USD/XAU ratios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/mjfas.v12n4.489Keywords:
Weighted Markov Chain, SCGM(1, 1)c Model, Gold, OilAbstract
Grey model can be counted as a potent approximation for extracting system dynamic information with only small amount of data. A weighted Markov model is appropriate for predicting the stochastic fluctuating dynamic by a transition probability matrix and normalizing autocorrelation coefficient as weighted and a single gene system cloud grey SCGM(1,1)c model. It is applied to regulate the development trend of time series. In this paper we employed a weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model for predicting the Gold/Oil ,DJIA/Gold and USD/XAU ratios. By examining the forecasted results, it was concluded that the weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model is a reliable and effective modeling method.
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