Using weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model to forecast gold/oil ,DJIA/gold and USD/XAU ratios


  • Hamidreza Mostafaei Department of statistics Islamic Azad University, Tehran North Branch
  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT, Tehran, Iran
  • Shirin Kordnoori M.Sc. student of artificial Intelligence , Department of Copmuter Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran



Weighted Markov Chain, SCGM(1, 1)c Model, Gold, Oil


Grey model can be counted as a potent approximation for extracting system dynamic information with only small amount of data. A weighted Markov model is appropriate for predicting the stochastic fluctuating dynamic by a transition probability matrix and normalizing autocorrelation coefficient as weighted and a single gene system cloud grey SCGM(1,1)c  model. It is applied to regulate the development trend of time series. In this paper we employed a weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model for predicting the Gold/Oil ,DJIA/Gold and USD/XAU ratios. By examining the forecasted results, it was concluded that the weighted Markov SCGM(1,1)c model is a reliable and effective modeling method.

Author Biographies

Hamidreza Mostafaei, Department of statistics Islamic Azad University, Tehran North Branch

Department of Statistics

Shaghayegh Kordnoori, Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT, Tehran, Iran


Shirin Kordnoori, M.Sc. student of artificial Intelligence , Department of Copmuter Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran

Department of  Copmuter Engineering, Science and Research Branch,  Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran

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